Euro-Raum: Erholungskurs

GiNN-BerlinKontor.— Das Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW-Kiel) teilt mit: “Die Konjunktur im Euroraum hat sich weiter gefestigt. Die Stimmungsindikatoren deuten darauf hin, dass sich die Erholung in den kommenden Monaten fortsetzen wird. Das Tempo des Aufschwungs wird allerdings vorerst moderat bleiben. Im Jahr 2014 dürfte der Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts 1,2 % betragen. Für 2015 erwarten wir, dass sich die konjunkturelle Dynamik erhöhen wird, auch weil die Strukturanpassungen in Krisenländern allmählich Früchte tragen werden. Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion wird voraussichtlich um 1,7 % zulegen.”

Kiel Institute: German growth accelerates

. Germany on the brink of overheating-Following last year’s weak expansion of 0.4 percent, German GDP is expected to grow by 1.9 percent this year and by 2.5 percent next year. Overall capacity utilization is expected to normalize this year. With potential growth estimated at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, next year’s output gap will already exceed the 1-percent-mark.

. Investment back on track, domestic use in the driver’s seat-Fixed capital formation will continue to accelerate (+4 percent this year, +6.4 percent next year) with extremely low interest rates and cyclical factors being important drivers. A robust job market and increasing personal incomes will push consumer spending that is expected to grow by 1.5 percent this year and by 1.9 percent next year.

. Foreign trade recovers, but no net production impact-Imports and exports will continue their most recent recovery and grow significantly stronger during the forecasting horizon. In the wake of strong domestic impulses, imports will grow faster than exports leaving foreign trade without a significant net production impact in both years.

. Increasing current account surpluses-Due to improved terms-of-trade and higher net interest earnings German current account surpluses are forecast to increase further to 7.9 percent (2014) and 8.2 percent (2015) in relation to nominal GDP.

. Employment growth accelerates, unemployment shrinking again-The German economy is expected to create 340 000 new jobs this year and 420 000 new jobs next year. After one and a half year of increasing numbers this will change the course of unemployment back on a downward trend. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 6.7 percent (2014) and 6.5 percent (2015).

. Fiscal surpluses, but consolidation policies not very ambitious-The total government sector will show increasing budget surpluses during the forecast horizon. In relation to nominal GDP government incomes will exceed expenditures by 0.3 percent this year and 0.8 percent next year. However, this is not a sign of ambitious consolidation efforts but rather the fruit of cyclical tail winds (that are to some extent due to monetary overheating) and favorable one-off effects that are unsustainable. (Quelle: ifw-kiel.de)

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